Diferenças e Semelhanças entre Países da América Latina: Uma Análise de Markov Switching para os Ciclos Econômicos de Brasil e Argentina

Arnildo Correa

No 80, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to promote a business cycles analysis for Brazil and Argentina, emphasizing the differences in their economic processes. The differences in economic fluctuations of each country are seen as a result of their differences in economic foundations and structural characteristics. For this purpose, the MS-VAR – Markov switching vector autoregression – approach is used. Univariate models are estimated to real GDP data for the period from 1990 to 2000. The results suggest that business cycles of Brazil and Argentina are, individually, very different. Firstly, Brazilian economy experienced, in average, high growth rate in expansion regime, especially, in high-growth regime. This was not the case of Argentina. Secondly, recessive periods were, in average, more severe in Argentina than in Brazil. While the average growth rate estimated in the recessive regime was –5,8% for Argentina, for Brazil this value was zero. Therefore, results show that these countries cannot be viewed as similar. Furthermore, there is evidence that the assumption of a data generating process shifting only two regimes is too restrictive to capture recessions as well as high growth periods.

Date: 2003-10
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