Mercado de Crédito: Uma Análise Econométrica dos Volumes de Crédito Total e Habitacional no Brasil

Ana Costa

No 87, Working Papers Series from Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department

Abstract: This paper uses the cointegration framework to study the series of total private credit and housing finance volumes in the Brazilian banking system. A stationary long-term relationship is identified suggesting that the recent observed deviation can be classified as a short-term desequilibrium. Also, the exogeneity of the housing finance volumes variable in relation to the total credit variable supports the idea that banks in Brazil allocate resources in home mortgage loans in volumes that are just enough to meet requirements set by Central Bank regulation. Consequently, specific policies have to be put in place in order to create right incentives for banks to expand housing finance volumes, independently of a potential expansionist credit market. Hence, the actual structure of Brazilian real estate market - specifically housing finance - both in its institutional and normative aspects - not only constraints housing finance concessions but also negatively impacts total credit concessions by commercial banks in Brazil.

Date: 2004-12
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