Structural transformation in the Spanish economy
No 2003, Occasional Papers from Banco de España, Occasional Papers Homepage
This paper studies how the variation in sectoral productivities shapes the sectoral composition of the Spanish economy from 1980 to 2015. I first document an asymmetric behavior of sectoral productivities: the productivity of services declines over time, whereas the productivity of manufacturing increases until the 1990s, before slowing down. I feed the path of sectoral productivities observed in the data into a model of structural transformation with two sectors (services and manufacturing) which are connected by an Input-Output matrix. The model reproduces the variation of the gross output services share of the Spanish economy between 1980 and 2015. The model implies that – even absent changes in the trends of sectoral productivities – the annual growth rate of GDP between 2015 and 2050 shrinks by 0.6 percentage points with respect to the average growth rate between 1980 and 2015. Hence, annual GDP growth would decline from 2.3% to 1.7%. If sectoral productivities were to equal the levels observed in the Euro Area between 1980 and 2015, the average growth rate of Spanish GDP between 2015 and 2050 would be 2.1%.
Keywords: sectoral analysis; Input-Output matrix; Spanish economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O11 O14 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-his and nep-tid
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicac ... 20/Files/do2003e.pdf First version, January 2020 (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:opaper:2003
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Occasional Papers from Banco de España, Occasional Papers Homepage Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España ().