Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-Section Data

Luojia Hu and Maia Güell
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Maia Güell ()

No 41, Working Papers from Barcelona School of Economics

Abstract: We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments based estimator has two important features: (1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and (2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the ináow composition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposed estimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changes in distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a period of labor market reform. We found that the relative probability of leaving unemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployed becomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Keywords: unemployment; Repeated cross-section data; GMM; duratin analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C41 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-09
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Related works:
Journal Article: Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data (2006)
Working Paper: Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment Using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-Section Data (2004)
Working Paper: Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment Using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-Section Data (2003)
Working Paper: Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment Using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-section Data (2003)
Working Paper: Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data (2003)
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