Liquidity and financial cycles

Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin

No 256, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: In a financial system where balance sheets are continuously marked to market, asset price changes show up immediately in changes in net worth, and elicit responses from financial intermediaries, who adjust the size of their balance sheets. We document evidence that marked to market leverage is strongly procyclical. Such behaviour has aggregate consequences. Changes in aggregate balance sheets for intermediaries forecast changes in risk appetite in financial markets, as measured by the innovations in the VIX index. Aggregate liquidity can be seen as the rate of change of the aggregate balance sheet of the financial intermediaries.

Keywords: financial cycle; financial intermediation; leverage; liquidity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2008-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (165)

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