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BASEL III: Long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations

Paolo Angelini (), Laurent Clerc (), Vasco Cúrdia (), Leonardo Gambacorta (), Andrea Gerali (), Alberto Locarno (), Roberto Motto, Werner Roeger, Skander Van den Heuvel () and Jan Vlcek ()

No 338, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions. (1) What is the impact of the reform on long-term economic performance? (2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? (3) What is the impact of the adoption of countercyclical capital buffers on economic fluctuations? The main results are the following. (1) Each percentage point increase in the capital ratio causes a median 0.09 percent decline in the level of steady state output, relative to the baseline. The impact of the new liquidity regulation is of a similar order of magnitude, at 0.08 percent. This paper does not estimate the benefits of the new regulation in terms of reduced frequency and severity of financial crisis, analysed in Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS, 2010b). (2) The reform should dampen output volatility; the magnitude of the effect is heterogeneous across models; the median effect is modest. (3) The adoption of countercyclical capital buffers could have a more sizeable dampening effect on output volatility. These conclusions are fully consistent with those of reports by the Long-term Economic Impact group (BCBS, 2010b) and Macro Assessment Group (MAG, 2010b).

Keywords: Basel III; countercyclical capital buffers; financial (in)stability; procyclicality; macroprudential (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cba, nep-mac, nep-reg and nep-rmg
Date: 2011-02
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Related works:
Journal Article: Basel III: Long-term Impact on Economic Performance and Fluctuations (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Basel III: Long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: BASEL III: Long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: BASEL III: long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations (2011) Downloads
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