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An explanation of negative swap spreads: demand for duration from underfunded pension plans

Sven Klingler and Suresh Sundaresan

No 705, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: The 30-year U.S. swap spreads have been negative since September 2008. We offer a novel explanation for this persistent anomaly. Through an illustrative model, we show that underfunded pension plans optimally use swaps for duration hedging. Combined with dealer banks' balance sheet constraints, this demand can drive swap spreads to become negative. Empirically, we construct a measure of the aggregate funding status of Defined Benefit pension plans and show that this measure is a significant explanatory variable of 30-year swap spreads. We find a similar link between pension funds' underfunding and swap spreads for two other regions.

Keywords: duration; swap spreads; balance sheetconstraints; funding status of pension plans; defined benefits; repo; LIBOR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D40 G10 G12 G13 G15 G22 G23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
Date: 2018-02
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