Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?
Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre,
Vadym Lepetyuk and
Rhys Mendes ()
No 720, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements
Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy. We find that the magnitude of the benefits hinges critically on two elements: (i) the availability and effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) tools at the effective lower bound, and, (ii) the level of the real neutral interest rate. In particular, we show that when the real neutral rate is in line with the central tendency of estimates, raising the inflation target yields some improvement in macroeconomic outcomes. There are only modest gains if effective UMP tools are available. In contrast, with a deeply negative real neutral rate, a higher inflation target substantially improves macroeconomic stability regardless of UMP.
Keywords: inflation target; effective lower bound; unconventional monetary policy; quantitative easing; forward guidance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Journal Article: Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability? (2018)
Working Paper: Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability? (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bis:biswps:720
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