Assessing inflation expectations anchoring for heterogeneous agents: analysts, businesses and trade unions
Ken Miyajima and
James Yetman ()
No 759, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements
Forecasts of agents who are actively involved in the setting of prices and wages are less readily available than those of professional analysts, but may be more relevant for understanding inflation dynamics. Here we compare inflation expectations anchoring between analysts, businesses and trade unions for one country for which comparable forecasts are available for almost two decades: South Africa. Forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or "implicit anchor", towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. We find that the estimated inflation anchors of analysts lie within the 3-6 percent inflation target range of the central bank. However, those for businesses and trade unions, which our evidence suggests may be most relevant for driving the inflation process, have remained above the top end of the official target range. Our results point to challenges for central banks seeking to gain credibility with agents whose decisions directly influence inflation.
Keywords: inflation expectations; inflation anchoring; decay function; inflation targeting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bis.org/publ/work759.pdf Full PDF document (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bis:biswps:759
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christian Beslmeisl ().