What Comes Next?

Daniel Rees

No 898, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: The Covid crisis prompted an unprecedented global economic contraction. Although the worst is likely behind us, the recovery is likely to be uneven, with economic activity in many customer-facing service industries set to remain constrained for some time. I use a quantitative multi-industry model to estimate the economic forces that explain the decline in economic activity in the United States, the Euro Area, Japan and China in the first half of 2020. I then use the model to project the trajectory of the economic recovery. I find that the US, EA and Japan will each face a '98% economy' if half of the constraints faced by customer-facing service industries in the first half of 2020 persist. The economic recovery in China is projected to occur more quickly.

Keywords: structural change; macroeconomic outlook; model projection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E17 E60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2020-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bis:biswps:898

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