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Macroeconomic effects of Covid-19: a mid-term review

Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

No 959, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of about 8 percent in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4 percent of the pre-pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is however a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High-frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insights into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies of combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead.

Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic; health-economic tradeoffs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2021-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-isf and nep-mac
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