Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19

Andre Anundsen (andre-kallak.anundsen@oslomet.no), Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, Erling R ed Larsen (erling.r.larsen@bi.no) and Leif Thorsrud

No No 07/2020, Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School

Abstract: We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and bid-by-bid auction data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lock-down on March 12, and the re-opening on April 20. We find that behavior changed voluntarily before the lock-down, and we find effects on the housing market from both the lock-down and the re-opening. In particular, there exists a discontinuity on the date of the lock-down in transaction volumes, sell-prediction spreads, aggressive bidding behavior, and seller confidence. However, when we compare observed price developments with our estimated counter-factual price developments, we find that roughly half of the total fall in prices had occurred when the lock-down was implemented. The re-opening completely reverses the lock-down effect on prices. We also show that voluntary behavioural changes, as well as lock-down and re-opening effects, are visible in various measures of social mobility, and that changes in daily news sentiment correlate with the abnormal price movements during this period.

Keywords: Auctions; Bids; Covid-19; Discontinuity; Housing Market; Policy Intervention (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2020-09
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