 Global financial cycles since 1880Galina Potjagailo and Maik Wolters No 867, Bank of England working papers from Bank of England Abstract: With the aim to provide a detailed understanding of global financial cycles and their relevance over time, we analyse co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and interest rates across 17 advanced economies over 130 years. Using a time-varying dynamic factor model, we observe global co-movement across financial variables as well as variable-specific global cycles of different lengths and amplitudes. Global cycles have gained relevance over time. For equity prices, they now constitute the main driver of fluctuations in most countries. Global cycles in credit and housing have become much more pronounced and protracted since the 1980s, but their relevance increased for a sub-group of financially open and developed economies only. Panel regressions indicate that a country’s susceptibility to global financial cycles tends to increase with financial openness and financial integration, the extent of mortgage-related lending, and the efficiency of stock markets. Understanding the cross-country heterogeneity in financial market characteristics therefore matters for the design of appropriate financial stabilization policies across countries and sectors. Keywords: Financial cycles; financial crisis; global co-movement; dynamic factor models; time-varying parameters; macro-finance (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boe:boeewp:0867 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Bank of England working papers from Bank of England Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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