Details about Maik Wolters
Access statistics for papers by Maik Wolters.
Last updated 2024-08-18. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: pwo153
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Working Papers
2024
- Sudden Stop: Supply and Demand Shocks in the German Natural Gas Market
CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo 
Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2024)
Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2024)
2023
- The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real-time realiability tests
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
See also Journal Article The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real‐time reliability tests, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2023) (2023)
2021
- Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence
CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (1)
Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2021) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science (2021) View citations (1) (2021)
2020
- Global financial cycles since 1880
Bank of England working papers, Bank of England View citations (7)
Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2019) View citations (6)
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2019) View citations (6)
See also Journal Article Global financial cycles since 1880, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2023) View citations (1) (2023)
- Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model An application to the German business cycle
Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics View citations (21)
Also in VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2017) View citations (23)
CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (27)
- Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (17)
Also in VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2019) View citations (3)
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2019) View citations (3)
See also Journal Article Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2022) View citations (17) (2022)
2019
- Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2019 - Deutsche Wirtschaft im Abwärtssog
(German Economy Autumn 2019 - Germany at the brink of recession)
Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- Deutsche Wirtschaft in der Rezession?
Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- German Economy Autumn 2019 - Germany at the brink of recession
Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy
Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy, Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2019) (2019)
- Labor productivity, effort and the euro area business cycle
Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank View citations (8)
- Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model
Jena Economics Research Papers, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena View citations (12)
See also Journal Article Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2020) View citations (9) (2020)
2018
- Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft: Luftloch im konjunkturellen Höhenflug
(German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet)
Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet
Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
- How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model-based output gap estimates
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) View citations (8)
Also in Jena Economics Research Papers, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (2017)
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2016) View citations (1)
VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2016) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model‐based output gap estimates, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2018) View citations (5) (2018)
- Schwacher Jahresauftakt 2018: Delle oder Beginn eines Abschwungs?
Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
2017
- Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2017 - Deutsche Wirtschaft nähert sich der Hochkonjunktur
(German Economy Autumn 2017 - German economy approaches boom period)
Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
- German Economy Autumn 2017 - German economy approaches boom period
Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- Normaler Abschwung oder schwere Rezession? Ein neues Modell für die Prognose der Konjunkturphasen in Deutschland
Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (4)
- The impact of growth on unemployment in a low vs. a high inflation environment
Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics
Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2017)
See also Journal Article The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. High Inflation Environment, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2018) View citations (9) (2018)
2016
- Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2016 - Getrübte Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur
(World Economy Spring 2016 - Clouded outlook for the world economy)
Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- World Economy Spring 2016 - Clouded outlook for the world economy
Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- Zu Produktionspotenzial und Produktionslücke in den Vereinigten Staaten
Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (4)
2015
- Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Deutschland auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur
(German Economy Spring 2015 - German economy on the road to overheating)
Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
- Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2015 - Deutschland: Expansion trotzt weltwirtschaftlicher Unruhe
(Robust German economy in an uncertain international environment)
Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (2)
- Makroökonometrische Simulationen zur US-Zinspolitik
Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (2)
- Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?
VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (34)
Also in Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics (2015) View citations (34)
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2015) View citations (32)
See also Journal Article Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2019) View citations (35) (2019)
- Quantitative Lockerung: Transmission, Auswirkung und Risiken
Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- Robust German economy in an uncertain international environment
Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Dynamic General Equilibrium
Dynare Working Papers, CEPREMAP View citations (4)
Also in Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2014) View citations (5)
- Weakness in emerging markets weighs on global growth
Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2015 - Schwäche in den Schwellenländern bremst Weltkonjunktur
(Weakness in emerging markets weighs on global growth)
Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (5)
- Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2015 - Erholung der Weltkonjunktur vorübergehend gebremst
(World Economy Summer 2015 - Faltering recovery of the world economy)
Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
- World Economy Summer 2015 - Faltering recovery of the world economy
Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
- Zwischen GREMAIN und GREXIT: Euroraum in der Bewährungskrise
Kiel Policy Brief, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
2014
- Estimating monetary policy rules when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is approached
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (6)
- Estimating the impact of climate change on agricultural production: Accounting for technology heterogeneity across countries
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (4)
Also in Working Papers, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck (2014) View citations (4)
- Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (7)
Also in VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2014) View citations (7)
- Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the Euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) View citations (5)
Also in Kiel Policy Brief, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2014) View citations (5)
- The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (6)
Also in Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics (2014) View citations (6)
MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) (2012) View citations (8)
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (6)
See also Journal Article The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter (2015) View citations (35) (2015)
- The short- and long-run effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium
VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (5)
- Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2014
Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (3)
- Wie wahrscheinlich ist eine "Deflationsspirale" im Euroraum? Eine Analyse anhand einer Phillips-Kurve
Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
2013
- Do large recessions reduce output permanently?
VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (27)
Also in Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics (2012) View citations (5)
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2012) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article Do large recessions reduce output permanently?, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2013) View citations (27) (2013)
- Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics View citations (12)
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012) View citations (26)
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (5)
VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2011) View citations (7)
See also Journal Article Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2015) View citations (42) (2015)
- Fiscal Consolidation Strategy: An Update For The Budget Reform Proposal of March 2013
Economics Working Papers, Hoover Institution, Stanford University View citations (10)
Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2013) View citations (10)
Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (2013) View citations (10)
- Möglichkeiten und Grenzen von makroökonomischen Modellen zur (exante) Evaluierung wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen
Working Papers, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung View citations (6)
- Sticky Information Models in Dynare
CEF.UP Working Papers, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto View citations (7)
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2013) View citations (1)
Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics (2013) View citations (8)
Dynare Working Papers, CEPREMAP (2013) View citations (8)
See also Journal Article Sticky Information Models in Dynare, Computational Economics, Springer (2014) View citations (2) (2014)
2012
- A New Comparative Approach to Macroeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (163)
Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2012) View citations (126)
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (128)
See also Journal Article A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier (2012) View citations (121) (2012)
- Fiscal Consolidation Strategy
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
Also in Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (2012) View citations (5)
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (6)
CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2012) View citations (13)
See also Journal Article Fiscal consolidation strategy, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2013) View citations (81) (2013)
- Forecasting and policy making
IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) View citations (49)
See also Chapter Forecasting and Policy Making, Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier (2013) View citations (44) (2013)
2010
- Does Trade Integration Alter Monetary Policy Transmission?
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (4)
Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2008) View citations (3)
See also Journal Article Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2011) View citations (24) (2011)
- Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2012) View citations (30) (2012)
- The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (11)
Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2010) View citations (15)
See also Journal Article The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy, Economic Theory, Springer (2011) View citations (43) (2011)
Journal Articles
2023
- Global financial cycles since 1880
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2023, 131, (C) View citations (1)
See also Working Paper Global financial cycles since 1880, Bank of England working papers (2020) View citations (7) (2020)
- The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real‐time reliability tests
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023, 38, (7), 1101-1111
See also Working Paper The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real-time realiability tests, IMFS Working Paper Series (2023) (2023)
2022
- Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40, (1), 152-168 View citations (17)
See also Working Paper Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter, Kiel Working Papers (2020) View citations (17) (2020)
2021
- Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence
Economica, 2021, 88, (352), 1016-1053 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence, CESifo Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (1) (2021)
2020
- Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model
International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (3), 829-850 View citations (9)
See also Working Paper Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model, Jena Economics Research Papers (2019) View citations (12) (2019)
2019
- Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), 2019, 13, 1-34
See also Working Paper Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy, Economics Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (1) (2019)
- Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?
International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (4), 81-126 View citations (35)
See also Working Paper Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?, VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy (2015) View citations (34) (2015)
- Rezessionsrisiko der deutschen Wirtschaft deutlich erhöht
ifo Schnelldienst, 2019, 72, (05), 28-31
2018
- Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?
Empirical Economics, 2018, 55, (2), 573-596 View citations (6)
- How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model‐based output gap estimates
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, 33, (5), 680-689 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model-based output gap estimates, IMFS Working Paper Series (2018) View citations (8) (2018)
- Schwächephase oder beginnender Abschwung?
(Temporary Lull or Start of a Downturn?)
Wirtschaftsdienst, 2018, 98, (7), 531-532
- The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. High Inflation Environment
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2018, 28, 34-50 View citations (9)
See also Working Paper The impact of growth on unemployment in a low vs. a high inflation environment, Economics Working Papers (2017) (2017)
Software Item Code and data files for "The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. High Inflation Environment", Computer Codes (2017) (2017)
2016
- Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? A Literature Review with an Application to the Euro Area
Review of Economics, 2016, 67, (3), 231-253 View citations (1)
2015
- Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015, 30, (1), 74-96 View citations (42)
See also Working Paper Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models, Economics Working Papers (2013) View citations (12) (2013)
- Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Transmission Channels and Risks
Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2015, 50, (4), 206-212 View citations (12)
- The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2015, 19, (2), 161-182 View citations (35)
See also Working Paper The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach, Kiel Working Papers (2014) View citations (6) (2014)
2014
- Sticky Information Models in Dynare
Computational Economics, 2014, 43, (3), 357-370 View citations (2)
See also Working Paper Sticky Information Models in Dynare, CEF.UP Working Papers (2013) View citations (7) (2013)
2013
- Do large recessions reduce output permanently?
Economics Letters, 2013, 121, (3), 516-519 View citations (27)
See also Working Paper Do large recessions reduce output permanently?, VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order (2013) View citations (27) (2013)
- Fiscal consolidation strategy
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013, 37, (2), 404-421 View citations (81)
See also Working Paper Fiscal Consolidation Strategy, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (9) (2012)
2012
- A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2012, 83, (3), 523-541 View citations (121)
See also Working Paper A New Comparative Approach to Macroeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (163) (2012)
- Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 34, (2), 342-361 View citations (30)
See also Working Paper Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions, MPRA Paper (2010) View citations (1) (2010)
2011
- Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 35, (4), 545-564 View citations (24)
See also Working Paper Does Trade Integration Alter Monetary Policy Transmission?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (4) (2010)
- The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy
Economic Theory, 2011, 47, (2), 247-292 View citations (43)
See also Working Paper The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (11) (2010)
Chapters
2013
- Forecasting and Policy Making
Elsevier View citations (44)
See also Working Paper Forecasting and policy making, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (49) (2012)
Software Items
2017
- Code and data files for "The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. High Inflation Environment"
Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
See also Journal Article The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. High Inflation Environment, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2018) View citations (9) (2018)
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