Details about Maik Wolters

Access statistics for papers by Maik Wolters.

Last updated 2023-11-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pwo153

Working Papers

2023

1. The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real-time realiability tests
   IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)

2021

2. Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo
   Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2021)
   See also Journal Article in Economica (2021)

2020

3. Global financial cycles since 1880
   Bank of England working papers, Bank of England View citations (6)
   Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2019) View citations (5)
   Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2019) View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2023)
4. Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model An application to the German business cycle
   Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics View citations (19)
   Also in VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2017) View citations (23)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (27)
5. Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter
   Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (17)
   Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2019) View citations (3)
   VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2019) View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2022)

2019

6. Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2019 - Deutsche Wirtschaft im Abwärtssog
   (German Economy Autumn 2019 - Germany at the brink of recession)
   Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
7. Deutsche Wirtschaft in der Rezession?
   Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
8. German Economy Autumn 2019 - Germany at the brink of recession
   Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
9. Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy
   Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article in Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020) (2019)
10. Labor productivity, effort and the euro area business cycle
    Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank View citations (8)
11. Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model
    Jena Economics Research Papers, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2020)

2018

12. Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft: Luftloch im konjunkturellen Höhenflug
    (German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet)
    Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
13. German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet
    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
14. How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model-based output gap estimates
    IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) View citations (8)
    Also in Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2016) View citations (1)
    Jena Economics Research Papers, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (2017)
    VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2016) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2018)
15. Schwacher Jahresauftakt 2018: Delle oder Beginn eines Abschwungs?
    Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

2017

16. Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2017 - Deutsche Wirtschaft nähert sich der Hochkonjunktur
    (German Economy Autumn 2017 - German economy approaches boom period)
    Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
17. German Economy Autumn 2017 - German economy approaches boom period
    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
18. Normaler Abschwung oder schwere Rezession? Ein neues Modell für die Prognose der Konjunkturphasen in Deutschland
    Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (4)
19. The impact of growth on unemployment in a low vs. a high inflation environment
    Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2017)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2018)

2016

20. Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2016 - Getrübte Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur
    (World Economy Spring 2016 - Clouded outlook for the world economy)
    Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
21. World Economy Spring 2016 - Clouded outlook for the world economy
    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
22. Zu Produktionspotenzial und Produktionslücke in den Vereinigten Staaten
    Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (4)

2015

23. Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Deutschland auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur
    (German Economy Spring 2015 - German economy on the road to overheating)
    Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
24. Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2015 - Deutschland: Expansion trotzt weltwirtschaftlicher Unruhe
    (Robust German economy in an uncertain international environment)
    Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (2)
25. Makroökonometrische Simulationen zur US-Zinspolitik
    Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (2)
26. Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?
    VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (33)
    Also in Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics (2015) View citations (33)
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2015) View citations (31)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2019)
27. Quantitative Lockerung: Transmission, Auswirkung und Risiken
    Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
28. Robust German economy in an uncertain international environment
    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
29. The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Dynamic General Equilibrium
    Dynare Working Papers, CEPREMAP View citations (4)
    Also in Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2014) View citations (5)
30. Weakness in emerging markets weighs on global growth
    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
31. Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2015 - Schwäche in den Schwellenländern bremst Weltkonjunktur
    (Weakness in emerging markets weighs on global growth)
    Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (5)
32. Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2015 - Erholung der Weltkonjunktur vorübergehend gebremst
    (World Economy Summer 2015 - Faltering recovery of the world economy)
    Kieler Konjunkturberichte, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (1)
33. World Economy Summer 2015 - Faltering recovery of the world economy
    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)
34. Zwischen GREMAIN und GREXIT: Euroraum in der Bewährungskrise
    Kiel Policy Brief, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

2014

35. Estimating monetary policy rules when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is approached
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (6)
36. Estimating the impact of climate change on agricultural production: Accounting for technology heterogeneity across countries
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (4)
    Also in Working Papers, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck (2014) View citations (4)
37. Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods
    VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (7)
    Also in Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2014) View citations (7)
38. Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the Euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve
    IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) View citations (5)
    Also in Kiel Policy Brief, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2014) View citations (5)
39. The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach
    Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics View citations (6)
    Also in Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2014) View citations (6)
    MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) (2012) View citations (8)
    IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (2015)
40. The short- and long-run effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium
    VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (5)
41. Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2014
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (3)
42. Wie wahrscheinlich ist eine "Deflationsspirale" im Euroraum? Eine Analyse anhand einer Phillips-Kurve
    Kiel Insight, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

2013

43. Do large recessions reduce output permanently?
    VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (25)
    Also in Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2012) View citations (4)
    Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics (2012) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2013)
44. Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
    Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics View citations (12)
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (5)
    VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2011) View citations (7)
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012) View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2015)
45. Fiscal Consolidation Strategy: An Update For The Budget Reform Proposal of March 2013
    Economics Working Papers, Hoover Institution, Stanford University View citations (10)
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2013) View citations (10)
    Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (2013) View citations (10)
46. Möglichkeiten und Grenzen von makroökonomischen Modellen zur (exante) Evaluierung wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen
    Working Papers, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung View citations (6)
47. Sticky Information Models in Dynare
    Dynare Working Papers, CEPREMAP View citations (8)
    Also in Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics (2013) View citations (8)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2013) View citations (1)
    CEF.UP Working Papers, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto (2013) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Computational Economics (2014)

2012

48. A New Comparative Approach to Macroeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (157)
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (122)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2012) View citations (120)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2012)
49. Fiscal Consolidation Strategy
    Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research View citations (5)
    Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2012) View citations (6)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2012) View citations (13)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2013)
50. Forecasting and policy making
    IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) View citations (49)
    See also Chapter (2013)

2010

51. Does Trade Integration Alter Monetary Policy Transmission?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (4)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2008) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2011)
52. Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2012)
53. The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (11)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2010) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Theory (2011)

Journal Articles

2023

1. Global financial cycles since 1880
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2023, 131, (C)
   See also Working Paper (2020)

2022

2. Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter
   Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40, (1), 152-168 View citations (13)
   See also Working Paper (2020)

2021

3. Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence
   Economica, 2021, 88, (352), 1016-1053
   See also Working Paper (2021)

2020

4. Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (3), 829-850 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2019)

2019

5. Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy
   Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), 2019, 13, 1-34
   See also Working Paper (2019)
6. Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15, (4), 81-126 View citations (31)
   See also Working Paper (2015)
7. Risk of recession for the German economy significantly higher
   ifo Schnelldienst, 2019, 72, (05), 28-31

2018

8. Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?
   Empirical Economics, 2018, 55, (2), 573-596 View citations (6)
9. How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model‐based output gap estimates
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, 33, (5), 680-689 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper (2018)
10. Schwächephase oder beginnender Abschwung?
    (Temporary Lull or Start of a Downturn?)
    Wirtschaftsdienst, 2018, 98, (7), 531-532
11. The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. High Inflation Environment
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2018, 28, 34-50 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (2017)
    Software Item (2017)

2016

12. Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? A Literature Review with an Application to the Euro Area
    Review of Economics, 2016, 67, (3), 231-253 View citations (1)

2015

13. Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015, 30, (1), 74-96 View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
14. Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Transmission Channels and Risks
    Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2015, 50, (4), 206-212 View citations (12)
15. The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2015, 19, (2), 161-182 View citations (34)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2014

16. Sticky Information Models in Dynare
    Computational Economics, 2014, 43, (3), 357-370 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2013

17. Do large recessions reduce output permanently?
    Economics Letters, 2013, 121, (3), 516-519 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
18. Fiscal consolidation strategy
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013, 37, (2), 404-421 View citations (79)
    See also Working Paper (2012)

2012

19. A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis
    Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2012, 83, (3), 523-541 View citations (121)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
20. Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 34, (2), 342-361 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper (2010)

2011

21. Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 35, (4), 545-564 View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
22. The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy
    Economic Theory, 2011, 47, (2), 247-292 View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper (2010)

Chapters

2013

1. Forecasting and Policy Making
   Elsevier View citations (44)
   See also Working Paper (2012)

Software Items

2017

1. Code and data files for "The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. High Inflation Environment"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2018)