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German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet

Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe (), Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll (), Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Galina Potjagailo and Maik Wolters

No 44, Kiel Institute Economic Outlook from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Abstract: The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.0 percent. However, the slowdown in economic activity at the beginning of the year is mainly due to temporary factors. We therefore expect growth to regain momentum during the course of the year. For 2019, we expect German GDP to increase by 2.3 percent. Thus, production continues to increase faster than potential output. With capacity utilization already at very high levels, the German economy will get closer to its limit.

Keywords: business cycle forecast; stabilization policy; leading indicators; outlook; Forecast error evaluation; consumption; factor model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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