Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market

Jochen Güntner, Magnus Reif and Maik Wolters

No 206, IMFS Working Paper Series from Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)

Abstract: We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared to what we observe in the data.

Keywords: Energy crisis; German natural gas market; narrative sign restrictions; natural gas price; structural scenario analysis; vector-autoregression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F51 Q41 Q43 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-eec, nep-ene and nep-eur
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/299246/1/1892369958.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market (2024)
Working Paper: Sudden Stop: Supply and Demand Shocks in the German Natural Gas Market (2024)
Working Paper: Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market (2024)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:imfswp:299246

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMFS Working Paper Series from Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().