Details about Magnus Reif

Access statistics for papers by Magnus Reif.

Last updated 2024-10-09. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pre458

Working Papers

2024

1. Sudden Stop: Supply and Demand Shocks in the German Natural Gas Market
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo
   Also in Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2024)
   IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2024)
   See also Journal Article Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2024) (2024)

2023

2. A latent weekly GDP indicator for Germany
   Technical Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank

2021

3. Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
   Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2021) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
4. Time-Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2022) View citations (5) (2022)

2020

5. Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model An application to the German business cycle
   Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics View citations (21)
   Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (27)
   VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2017) View citations (23)
6. Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency VARS with Time-Varying Parameters
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
7. The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Germany: A Scenario Calculation
   EconPol Policy Brief, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich View citations (6)
8. The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Selected European Countries: A Scenario Calculation
   EconPol Policy Brief, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich View citations (19)
9. Tracking and Predicting the German Economy: ifo vs. PMI
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Predicting the German Economy: Headline Survey Indices Under Test, Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer (2021) View citations (8) (2021)

2019

10. Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model
    Jena Economics Research Papers, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2020) View citations (9) (2020)

2018

11. Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates
    ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Macroeconomic uncertainty and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter (2021) View citations (1) (2021)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024, 39, (7), 1282-1300
   See also Working Paper Sudden Stop: Supply and Demand Shocks in the German Natural Gas Market, CESifo Working Paper Series (2024) (2024)

2022

2. Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation
   Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022, 84, (1), 80-102 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Time-Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation, CESifo Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (1) (2021)

2021

3. Macroeconomic uncertainty and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates
   Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2021, 25, (2), 20 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates, ifo Working Paper Series (2018) View citations (4) (2018)
4. Predicting the German Economy: Headline Survey Indices Under Test
   Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2021, 17, (2), 215-232 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper Tracking and Predicting the German Economy: ifo vs. PMI, CESifo Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (2) (2020)
5. Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence
   Economica, 2021, 88, (352), 1016-1053 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence, CESifo Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
6. ifo Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft taumelt in die dritte Coronawelle
   ifo Schnelldienst Digital, 2021, 2, (09), 01-13 View citations (7)

2020

7. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Bayern: Eine Szenarienrechnung
   ifo Schnelldienst Digital, 2020, 1, (02), 01-02
8. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Deutschland: Eine Szenarienrechnung
   ifo Schnelldienst, 2020, 73, (04), 29-35 View citations (21)
9. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für ausgewählte europäische Länder: Eine Szenarienrechnung
   ifo Schnelldienst Digital, 2020, 1, (03), 01-07
10. Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (3), 829-850 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model, Jena Economics Research Papers (2019) View citations (12) (2019)
11. ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2020: Deutsche Wirtschaft – es geht wieder aufwärts
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2020, 73, (Sonderausgabe), 3-58 View citations (16)
12. ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2020: Das Coronavirus schlägt zurück – erneuter Shutdown bremst Konjunktur ein zweites Mal aus
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2020, 73, (Sonderausgabe), 03-61 View citations (10)
13. ifoCAST: Der neue Prognosestandard des ifo Instituts
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2020, 73, (11), 31-39 View citations (2)

2019

14. Rezessionsrisiko der deutschen Wirtschaft deutlich erhöht
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2019, 72, (05), 28-31
15. ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur ohne Schwung
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2019, 72, (12), 25-78 View citations (1)
16. ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur stabilisiert sich
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2019, 72, (24), 27-89 View citations (9)

2018

17. ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2018: Gewitterwolken am deutschen Konjunkturhimmel
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2018, 71, (12), 33-87 View citations (5)
18. ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2018: Deutsche Konjunktur kühlt sich ab
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2018, 71, (24), 28-82 View citations (12)

2017

19. ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017/2018: Deutsche Wirtschaft stark und stabil
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2017, 70, (12), 30-83 View citations (9)
20. ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017–2019: Deutsche Wirtschaft auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2017, 70, (24), 28-81 View citations (3)

2016

21. Die Auswirkungen des britischen Votums für einen Brexit auf die deutsche Konjunktur 2016/17
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2016, 69, (13), 38-43 View citations (1)
22. Eine Flash-Schätzung für die privaten Konsumausgaben in Deutschland
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2016, 69, (21), 36-41 View citations (9)
23. ifo Konjunkturprognose 2016/2017: Aufschwung in Deutschland geht in die zweite Halbzeit
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2016, 69, (12), 21-57 View citations (2)
24. ifo Konjunkturprognose 2016–2018: Robuste deutsche Konjunktur vor einem Jahr ungewisser internationaler Wirtschaftspolitik
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2016, 69, (24), 28-73 View citations (1)

2015

25. ifo Konjunkturprognose 2015/2017: Verhaltener Aufschwung setzt sich fort
    ifo Schnelldienst, 2015, 68, (24), 23-66 View citations (1)

Books

2020

1. Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle
   ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich