Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle

Magnus Reif

in ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: This dissertation focuses on describing and explaining business cycle dynamics. Motivated by the extraordinary strong economic downturn in 2008/2009, it emphasis the importance of modeling nonlinearities. This thesis should be regarded as a contribution to applied econometrics and can be clustered into two categories. The articles in chapter one and two take an applied stance by exploring different modeling strategies for the German economy. The articles in chapter three and four cover methodological contributions, especially with regard to economic forecasting.

Keywords: Forecasting; Nowcasting; Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model; BVAR; Threshold VAR; Time-Varying Parameter; Mixed-frequency Models; Bayesian Methods; Turning Points; Great Recession; Great Moderation; Counterfactuals; Stochastic Volatility; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C53 C55 E31 E32 E37 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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