The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Selected European Countries: A Scenario Calculation

Florian Dorn, Clemens Fuest, Marcell Göttert, Carla Krolage, Stefan Lautenbacher (), Robert Lehmann, Sebastian Link, Sascha Möhrle, Andreas Peichl, Magnus Reif, Stefan Sauer, Marc Stöckli, Klaus Wohlrabe and Timo Wollmershäuser

No 25, EconPol Policy Brief from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: This paper presents scenarios of the shutdown costs in terms of lost value added for Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and UK. The shutdown phase will lead to considerable production losses and large declines in GDP this year. Lasting longer than a month, the losses within the EU quickly reach dimensions well beyond the growth slump of previous recessions or natural disasters. Shutdown costs justify almost every conceivable investment in health policy measures which allow to combine a resumption of production with further fight against the epidemic.

Date: 2020
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