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World Economy Spring 2016 - Clouded outlook for the world economy

Klaus Gern, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Martin Plödt and Maik Wolters
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Martin Ademmer

No 15, Kiel Institute Economic Outlook from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Abstract: Global growth has slowed down recently. While the world economy should gradually regain pace over the coming quarters, overall growth momentum is expected to remain subdued. The recent drop in oil prices has not improved the outlook as it to a substantial degree signals weaker demand; additionally, lower prices will continue to be a drag on activity in oil-exporting countries. Increased uncertainty is also weighing on growth. Against this backdrop, our forecast for world economic growth in 2016 has been revised down by half a percentage point to 2.9 percent. For 2017 we forecast global GDP growth of 3.5 percent (December: 3.7 percent). Activity in advanced economies will be supported by rising income and expansive monetary policies. Emerging economies, however, face both structural and cyclical headwinds. Although the current dismal performance is expected to improve over the forecast horizon, growth will remain low by historical standards.

Keywords: Brexit; global oil market; Oil price shocks; United States; potential output; Output gap; advanced economies; emerging economies; Japan; Russia; ASEAN (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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