Development of "Alternative Data Consumption Index":Nowcasting Private Consumption Using Alternative Data

Tomohiro Okubo, Koji Takahashi, Haruhiko Inatsugu and Masato Takahashi
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Tomohiro Okubo: Bank of Japan
Koji Takahashi: Bank of Japan
Haruhiko Inatsugu: Bank of Japan
Masato Takahashi: Bank of Japan

No 22-E-8, Bank of Japan Working Paper Series from Bank of Japan

Abstract: In the field of macroeconomic analysis, there has recently been a growing interest in "alternative data" or nontraditional data whose information sources differ from those of existing statistics. Using alternative data that become timely available, this paper aims to capture developments in Japan's private consumption at the macro level earlier than existing statistics. We construct the "Alternative Data Consumption Index" (ALC) by combining three types of alternative data: (1) credit card transaction data (JCB Consumption NOW); (2) point-of-sale (POS) data (METI POS and GfK); and (3) spending records obtained from a personal financial management service (Money Forward). We nowcast the Consumption Activity Index (CAI), which is compiled and released by the Bank of Japan, using the ALC. With respect to timeliness, the ALC has a significant advantage over the CAI; the ALC for the month is available in the middle of the following month, approximately 3 weeks earlier than the release of the CAI. Our findings show that the ALC is generally accurate in nowcasting the CAI and thus aggregate consumption developments. It also accurately captures the substantial changes in consumption activities caused by the spread of COVID-19 since spring 2020. Overall, the results suggest that alternative data can capture macro level consumption activity promptly and accurately, making them a powerful tool for understanding economic conditions.

Keywords: Nowcasting; Alternative Data; Private Consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C49 E21 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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