Predicting Turning Points: Technical Paper 2000-3

Dan Chin, John Geweke and Preston Miller

No 13337, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: In this paper, we seek to develop a reliable method to predict turning points in observed economic variables. Our method is designed so that it can be used day to day with the information that is available at the time. We illustrate our method with respect to a particular variable: the civilian unemployment rate (UR). Our method applies as well to numerous other economic variables.

Date: 2000-05-01
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