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Working Papers

From Congressional Budget Office
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60167: The Effects of Flood Damage on the Subsidy Cost of Federally Backed Mortgages: Working Paper 2024-04 Downloads
Evan Herrnstadt and Byoung Hark Yoo
59880: How CBO Uses the ReEDS Model to Analyze Policies in the Electric Power Sector: Working Paper 2024-02 Downloads
David Adler
59629: Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08 Downloads
Byoung Hark Yoo
59231: Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07 Downloads
Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller and Grace Hwang
59056: Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05 Downloads
Ufuk Demirel and Matthew Wilson
58964: Modeling the Demand for Electric Vehicles and the Supply of Charging Stations in the United States: Working Paper 2023-06 Downloads
David Austin
58867: The Effects of Work Requirements on the Employment and Income of TANF Participants: Working Paper 2023-03 Downloads
Justin Falk
58849: The Welfare Effects of Debt: Crowding Out and Risk Shifting: Working Paper 2022-10 Downloads
Michael Falkenheim
58764: The U.S. Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects: Working Paper 2023-04 Downloads
Daniel Fried
58508: Current Work on the Distributional Analysis of Household Income Resulting From Policy Changes: Working Paper 2022-09 Downloads
Bilal Habib and Rebecca Heller
58305: Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Plans and the Distribution of Family Wealth: Working Paper 2023-02 Downloads
Nadia Karamcheva and Victoria Perez-Zetune
58168: Flood Damage Avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations: Working Paper 2024-03 Downloads
Evan Herrnstadt and Jared Jageler
57908: Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04 Downloads
Congressional Budget Office
57844: A Model for Pricing Federal Housing Finance Obligations: Working Paper 2022-06 Downloads
Congressional Budget Office
57843: "Lesser-of" Payment Policies and the Use of Physicians' Services Among Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries: Working Paper 2023-01 Downloads
Tamara B. Hayford, Xiaotong Niu and Sandra L. Decker
57711: Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07 Downloads
Congressional Budget Office
57637: Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02 Downloads
Congressional Budget Office
57582: A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05 Downloads
Congressional Budget Office
57581: How CBO Estimates the Market Risk of Federal Credit Programs: Working Paper 2021-14 Downloads
Michael Falkenheim and Wendy Kiska
57580: How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Would Respond to a Tax or Allowance Price: An Update: Working Paper 2021-16 Downloads
Ron Gecan
57431: Data and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Firms in CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model, HISIM2: Working Paper 2021-15 Downloads
Lucas Goodman, Ben Hopkins, Alexandra Minicozzi and Eamon Molloy
57430: Fiscal Substitution in Spending for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2021-13 Downloads
Sheila Campbell and Chad Shirley
57429: CBO’s Model for Estimating the Effect That Federal Taxes Have on Capital Income From New Investment: Working Paper 2022-01 Downloads
Paul Burnham and Dorian Carloni
57399: Distributional Effects of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions With a Carbon Tax: Working Paper 2021-11 Downloads
Dorian Carloni and Terry Dinan
57398: Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03 Downloads
Jeffrey Schafer
57326: CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10 Downloads
Daniel Fried
57264: Fair-Value Budgeting: Practical Issues: Working Paper 2021-08 Downloads
Michael Falkenheim
57255: Governmental Risk Taking Under Market Imperfections: Working Paper 2021-07 Downloads
Michael Falkenheim
57254: The Congressional Budget Office’s Small-Scale Policy Model: Working Paper 2022-08 Downloads
Mark Lasky
57217: How Changes in the Distribution of Earnings Affect the Federal Deficit: Working Paper 2021-12 Downloads
Brooks Pierce
57089: Revisiting the Extent to Which Payroll Taxes Are Passed Through to Employees: Working Paper 2021-06 Downloads
Dorian Carloni
57062: Fair-Value Cost Estimation and Government Cash Flows: Working Paper 2021-05 Downloads
Michael Falkenheim
57027: Discrete Choice Models for Estimating Labor Supply: Working Paper 2021-04 Downloads
Naveen Singhal
57022: Estimating the Legal Status of Foreign-Born People: Working Paper 2021-02 Downloads
Julia Heinzel, Rebecca Heller and Natalie Tawil
57021: The Economic Effects of Financing a Large and Permanent Increase in Government Spending: Working Paper 2021-03 Downloads
Jaeger Nelson and Kerk Phillips
57010: CBO's Simulation Model of New Drug Development: Working Paper 2021-09 Downloads
Christopher P. Adams
56905: CBO’s Model of Drug Price Negotiations Under the Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act: Working Paper 2021-01 Downloads
Christopher Adams and Evan Herrnstadt
56811: How CBO Analyzes the Costs of Proposals for Single-Payer Health Care Systems That Are Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program: Working Paper 2020-08 Downloads
Congressional Budget Office
56612: Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output: Working Paper 2020-07 Downloads
John Seliski, Aaron Betz, Yiqun Chen and Ufuk Demirel
56522: Labor Market Effects of Tax Changes in Times of High and Low Unemployment: Working Paper 2020-05 Downloads
Ufuk Demirel
56505: CBO’s Projection of the Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Economic Output: Working Paper 2020-06 Downloads
Evan Herrnstadt and Terry Dinan
56420: Federal Reinsurance for Terrorism Risk and Its Effects on the Budget: Working Paper 2020-04 Downloads
Perry Beider and David Torregrosa
56356: CBO's Oil Price Forecasting Record: Working Paper 2020-03 Downloads
Ron Gecan
56337: Income-Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Working Paper 2020-02 Downloads
Nadia Karamcheva, Jeffrey Perry and Constantine Yannelis
55884: A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01 Downloads
Nathaniel Frentz, Jaeger Nelson, Dan Ready and John Seliski
55672: A Summary of Selected CBO Reports on Cash and Accrual Budgeting: Working Paper 2019-09 Downloads
Megan Carroll and David Torregrosa
55659: CBO’s Medicare Beneficiary Cost-Sharing Model: A Technical Description: Working Paper 2019-08 Downloads
Congressional Budget Office
55501: Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07 Downloads
Yiqun Chen
55447: The Effect of the Employer Match and Defaults on Federal Workers’ Savings Behavior in the Thrift Savings Plan: Working Paper 2019-06 Downloads
Justin Falk and Nadia Karamcheva
55284: The Effect of Tax-Motivated Transfer Pricing on U.S. Aggregate Trade Statistics: Working Paper 2019-05 Downloads
Dorian Carloni, Daniel Fried and Molly Saunders-Scott
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