Revisiting the Extent to Which Payroll Taxes Are Passed Through to Employees: Working Paper 2021-06
No 57089, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office
Empirical evidence on the incidence of payroll tax changes in the United States is limited and does not generally apply to changes in U.S. federal payroll taxes. Economic models can help inform the effects of such changes on householdsâ€™ well-beingâ€”that is, their welfare effects. In this paper, I rely on partial equilibrium and general equilibrium models to quantify the welfare effects of payroll tax changes. First, I develop a partial equilibrium model of tax incidence and evaluate the short-run incidence of payroll tax changes on employees in the
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