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Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07

Congressional Budget Office
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Ufuk Devrim Demirel

No 57711, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections. Economic variables play a central role in the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of federal spending and revenues, and the uncertainty of economic projections is a key driver of the uncertainty about the agency’s budget projections. The presented method quantifies the uncertainty of economic variables by using simulations from a multivariate statistical model in which variables are formulated as sums of unobserved stationary and nonstationary components. Experiments

JEL-codes: C32 C53 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-04-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-ore
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Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:57711