Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07
Congressional Budget Office
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Ufuk Devrim Demirel
No 57711, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections. Economic variables play a central role in the Congressional Budget Officeâ€™s analysis of federal spending and revenues, and the uncertainty of economic projections is a key driver of the uncertainty about the agencyâ€™s budget projections. The presented method quantifies the uncertainty of economic variables by using simulations from a multivariate statistical model in which variables are formulated as sums of unobserved stationary and nonstationary components. Experiments
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbo:wpaper:57711
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().