Working Papers

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55501: Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07

Yiqun Chen

55447: The Effect of the Employer Match and Defaults on Federal Workers’ Savings Behavior in the Thrift Savings Plan: Working Paper 2019-06

Justin Falk and Nadia Karamcheva

55284: The Effect of Tax-Motivated Transfer Pricing on U.S. Aggregate Trade Statistics: Working Paper 2019-05

Dorian Carloni, Daniel Fried and Molly Saunders-Scott

55104: How Do Changes in Medical Malpractice Liability Laws Affect Health Care Spending and the Federal Budget? Working Paper 2019-03

Karen Stockley

55087: Sources and Preparation of Data Used in HISIM2—CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model: Working Paper 2019-04

Jessica Banthin, Keren Hendel, Ben Hopkins and Geena Kim

55018: The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01

Edward Gamber and John Seliski

55011: Prices for and Spending on Specialty Drugs in Medicare Part D and Medicaid: An In-Depth Analysis: Working Paper 2019-02

Anna Anderson-Cook, Jared Maeda and Lyle Nelson

54871: CBO’s Model for Forecasting Business Investment: Working Paper 2018-09

Mark Lasky

54371: Fiscal Substitution of Investment for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2018-08

Congressional Budget Office

54234: How CBO Adjusts for Survey Underreporting of Transfer Income in Its Distributional Analyses: Working Paper 2018-07

Bilal Habib

54056: Comparing the Effects of Current Pay and Defined Benefit Pensions on Employee Retention: Working Paper 2018-06

Justin Falk and Nadia Karamcheva

53931: How Nominal Foreign Currency Depreciation Against the U.S. Dollar Affects U.S. Wealth: Working Paper 2018-05

Dorian Carloni

53616: CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04

Congressional Budget Office

53558: Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model: Working Paper 2018-03

Robert Shackleton

53537: How CBO Produces Its 10-Year Economic Forecast: Working Paper 2018-02

Robert W. Arnold

53441: An Analysis of Private-Sector Prices for Physicians’ Services: Working Paper 2018-01

Daria Pelech

53387: Issues and Challenges in Measuring and Improving the Quality of Health Care: Working Paper 2017-10

Congressional Budget Office

53345: CBO's New Framework for Analyzing the Effects of Means-Tested Transfers and Federal Taxes on the Distribution of Income: Working Paper 2017-09

Congressional Budget Office

53270: Effects of Medicare Advantage Enrollment on Beneficiary Risk Scores: Working Paper 2017-08

Alice Burns and Tamara Hayford

53153: Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07

Edward N. Gamber (cbo)

53125: An Evaluation of Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data to Impute Nonfilers to the Population of Tax Return Filers: Working Paper 2017-06

Shannon Mok

52985: Distribution of Lifetime Medicare Taxes and Spending by Sex and by Lifetime Household Earnings: Working Paper 2017-05

Xiaotong Niu

52749: Modeling the Costs of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation’s Multiemployer Program: Working Paper 2017-04

Wendy Kiska, Jason Levine and Damien Moore

52748: Projecting Demand for the Services of Primary Care Doctors: Working Paper 2017-03

Congressional Budget Office

52567: An Analysis of Private-Sector Prices for Hospital Admissions: Working Paper 2017-02

Jared Lane Maeda and Lyle Nelson

52385: Inflation, Default, and the Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt in Emerging Economies: Working Paper 2017-01

Daniel Fried

52199: Factors Affecting Revenue Estimates of Tax Compliance Proposals: Working Paper 2016-05

Janet Holtzblatt and Jamie McGuire

51919: Projecting Hospitals’ Profit Margins Under Several Illustrative Scenarios: Working Paper 2016-04

Tamara Hayford, Lyle Nelson and Alexia Diorio

51824: The Short-Term Effects of Tax Changes—Evidence for State Dependence: Working Paper 2016-03

Ufuk Demirel

51610: CBO’s Approach to Estimating Expected Hurricane Damage: Working Paper 2016-02

Terry Dinan

51599: The Outlook for U.S. Production of Shale Oil: Working Paper 2016-01

Mark Lasky

51097: The Costs to Different Generations of Policies That Close the Fiscal Gap: Working Paper 2015-10

Felix Reichling and Shinichi Nishiyama

51065: How CBO Estimates the Effects of the Affordable Care Act on the Labor Market: Working Paper 2015-09

Edward Harris and Shannon Mok

51027: Changes in Medicare Spending per Beneficiary by Age: Working Paper 2015-08

Xiaotong Niu, Melinda Buntin and Joyce Manchester

51005: How CBO Estimates Automatic Stabilizers: Working Paper 2015-07

Frank Russek and Kim Kowalewski

50871: Do Large-Scale Refinancing Programs Reduce Mortgage Defaults? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design: Working Paper 2015-06

Gabriel Ehrlich and Jeffrey Perry

50216: China’s Growing Energy Demand: Implications for the United States: Working Paper 2015-05

Andrew Stocking and Terry Dinan

50171: Federal Reinsurance for Terrorism Risk in 2015 and Beyond: Working Paper 2015-04

Perry Beider, David Torregrosa and Susan Willie

50049: Pricing Freight Transport to Account for External Costs: Working Paper 2015-03

David Austin

49925: The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02

Felix Reichling and Charles Whalen

49908: Do We Know Why Earnings Fall with Job Displacement? Working Paper: 2015-01

William J. Carrington

49837: Updated Death and Injury Rates of U.S. Military Personnel During the Conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan: Working Paper 2014-08

Matthew Goldberg

49451: Assessing the Design of the Low-Income Subsidy Program in Medicare Part D: Working Paper 2014-07

Andrew Stocking, James Baumgardner, Melinda Buntin and Anna Cook

49433: Labor Force Participation Elasticities of Women and Secondary Earners within Married Couples: Working Paper 2014-06

Robert McClelland and Shannon Mok

45711: Modeling the Budgetary Costs of FHA's Single Family Mortgage Insurance: Working Paper 2014-05

Francesca Castelli, Damien Moore, Gabriel Ehrlich and Jeffrey Perry

45553: Examining the Number of Competitors and the Cost of Medicare Part D: Working Paper 2014-04

Andrew Stocking, James Baumgardner, Melinda Buntin and Anna Cook

45140: The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02

Jonathan Huntley

45044: Market Efficiency and the U.S. Market for Sulfur Dioxide Allowances: Working Paper 2014-01

Claudia Hitaj and Andrew Stocking

44970: International Trade and Carbon Leakage: Working Paper 2013-08

Bruce Arnold

44941: Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07

Shinichi Nishiyama