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CBO's Simulation Model of New Drug Development: Working Paper 2021-09

Christopher P. Adams

No 57010, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: This paper presents the Congressional Budget Office’s simulation model for analyzing legislative proposals that may substantially affect new drug development. The model uses estimates of changes in expected future profits or development costs to estimate the percent change in the number of drug candidates entering the various stages of human clinical trials. Given changes in decisions to enter at each stage, the model estimates when and by how much the number of new drugs entering the market will change. To illustrate the implications of the model, the paper considers a

JEL-codes: I11 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-08-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-isf and nep-ore
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