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Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07

Edward N. Gamber (cbo)

No 53153, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: Private-sector forecasters consistently missed the decline in long-term nominal interest rates over the past three decades, estimating rates that were higher (and, in some cases, much higher) than what actually occurred. This analysis examines whether bond-market participants anticipated with greater accuracy the decline in long-term rates. To explore that issue, the Congressional Budget Office compared the accuracy and bias in forecasts of long-term interest rates from the Blue Chip consensus with forecasts based on information derived from the

JEL-codes: E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2017-09-27
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