Reestimating the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU: Working Paper 2008-06

Robert Arnold

No 20009, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: Recent research indicates that there have been fund amental changes in the way the economy works since the mid-1980s, including a reduction in the volatility of real GDP growth and lower rates of inflation and unemployment. Those changes have the potential to alter the inflation-unemployment tradeoff underlying the Phillips curve relationship and, consequently, the estimate of the NAIRU. This paper presents updated empirical estimates of the Philips curve and the NAIRU and explores the possibility that structural changes in the economy have shifted the underlying

Date: 2008-08-06
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