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Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility

Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis ()

No E2018/21, Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section

Abstract: We develop a VAR that allows the estimation of the impact of monetary policy shocks on volatility. Estimates for the US suggest that an increase in the policy rate by 1% is associated with a rise in unemployment and inflation volatility of about 15%. Using a New Keynesian model, with search and matching labour frictions and Epstein-Zin preferences we show that these volatility effects are driven by the coexistence of agents' fears of unemployment and concerns about the (in) ability of the monetary authority to reverse deviations from the policy rule with the impact magnified by the agents' preferences.

Keywords: DSGE; Non-Linear SVAR; New Keynesian; Search and Matching Frictions; Epstein-Zin preferences; Stochastic Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 E40 E52 C11 C13 C15 C50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-mac
Date: 2018-10
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Related works:
Working Paper: Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility (2015) Downloads
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