Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

Solomon M Hsiang, Marshall Burke and Edward Miguel

Department of Economics, Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley

Abstract: A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2σ to 4σ by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Keywords: Earth Sciences; Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience; Human Society; Climate Action; Peace; Justice and Strong Institutions; Climate; Climate Change; Conflict; Psychological; Crime; Humans; Knowledge Discovery; Violence; General Science & Technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-09-13
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (32)

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