Deepening or Diminishing Ethnic Divides? The Impact of Urban Migration in Kenya

Eric Kramon, Joan Hamory, Sarah Baird and Edward Miguel

Department of Economics, Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley

Abstract: The impact of urban migration on ethnic politics is the subject of longstanding debate. "First generation" modernization theories predict that urban migration should reduce ethnic identification and increase trust between groups. "Second generation" modernization perspectives argue the opposite: urban migration may amplify ethnic identification and reduce trust. We test these competing expectations with a three-wave panel survey following more than 8,000 Kenyans over a 15-year period, providing novel evidence on the impact of urban migration. Using individual fixed effects regressions, we show that urban migration leads to reductions in ethnic identification: ethnicity's importance to the individual diminishes after migrating. Yet urban migration also reduces trust between ethnic groups, and trust in people generally. Urban migrants become less attached to their ethnicity but more suspicious. The results advance the literature on urbanization and politics and have implications for the potential consequences of ongoing urbanization processes around the world. Replication Materials: The data, code, and any additional materials required to replicate all analyses in this article are available on the American Journal of Political Science Dataverse within the Harvard Dataverse Network, at: http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/B8TWK2.

Keywords: 44 Human Society (for-2020); 4403 Demography (for-2020); 10 Reduced Inequalities (sdg); Ethnic politics; Kenya; Trust; Urban migration; Urbanization; 1402 Applied Economics (for); 1606 Political Science (for); Political Science & Public Administration (science-metrix); 3801 Applied economics (for-2020); 4407 Policy and administration (for-2020); 4408 Political science (for-2020) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-04-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: Deepening or Diminishing Ethnic Divides? The Impact of Urban Migration in Kenya (2021)
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