Notes on the Development of MAFID Stability Scores for the Enhancement of the Person Characteristic Frame

Thomas B. Foster and Kendall Houghton

CES Technical Notes Series from Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau

Abstract: This CES technical note provides an overview of the development of prospective MAFID Stability Scores for the enhancement of the Census Bureau’s Person Characteristic Frame (PCF). MAFID Stability Scores capture the predicted probability that the roster of PIKs found at a MAFID in year y will be the same in year y+1. These scores are rooted in the Demographic Frame and use its Person-Place Model to situate PIKs within MAFIDs as of a given reference date. Changes in PIK rosters are predicted as a function of a broad array of MAFID- and place-level characteristics gleaned from administrative record, survey, and publicly available sources. Results show that most MAFID rosters are stable from one year to the next between 2018-19 and 2022-23, experiencing no fertility, mortality, migration, or “ghosting†(the disappearance or reappearance of a PIK inconsistently covered by the Demographic Frame). Among those MAFIDS that are unstable, the most common source of instability is migration; births, deaths, and “ghosting†are rare by comparison. Stability scores accurately predict approximately three-quarters of all observed MAFID stability outcomes. Opportunities for future improvement and potential use cases are discussed.

Keywords: Person Characteristics Frame; Demographic Frame; NCOA; Black Knight; ACS; IRS-1040; Planning Database (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03
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