Noncitizen Coverage and Its Effects on U.S. Population Statistics

J. David Brown, Misty Heggeness and Marta Murray-Close

Working Papers from U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

Abstract: We produce population estimates with the same reference date, April 1, 2020, as the 2020 Census of Population and Housing by combining 31 types of administrative record (AR) and third-party sources, including several new to the Census Bureau with a focus on noncitizens. Our AR census national population estimate is higher than other Census Bureau official estimates: 1.8% greater than the 2020 Demographic Analysis high estimate, 3.0% more than the 2020 Census count, and 3.6% higher than the vintage-2020 Population Estimates Program estimate. Our analysis suggests that inclusion of more noncitizens, especially those with unknown legal status, explains the higher AR census estimate. About 19.8% of AR census noncitizens have addresses that cannot be linked to an address in the 2020 Census collection universe, compared to 5.7% of citizens, raising the possibility that the 2020 Census did not collect data for a significant fraction of noncitizens residing in the United States under the residency criteria used for the census. We show differences in estimates by age, sex, Hispanic origin, geography, and socioeconomic characteristics symptomatic of the differences in noncitizen coverage.

Keywords: Keywords: Administrative records; Population estimates; Immigration; Noncitizen coverage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 61 pages
Date: 2023-08
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https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2023/adrm/ces/CES-WP-23-42.pdf First version, 2023 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Noncitizen Coverage and Its Effects on U.S. Population Statistics (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cen:wpaper:23-42

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