Sticky gravity

Mario Larch, Leandro Navarro and Dennis Novy

CEP Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Performance, LSE

Abstract: International trade flows show strong persistence over time. Standard static gravity models cannot rationalize this persistence and lack a micro-foundation for including lagged trade flows as a determinant of current trade. We develop a structural dynamic gravity framework in which persistence arises from firms' sluggish adjustment of destination-specific prices, analogous to sticky prices in macroeconomics but operating at the bilateral level. The model delivers a gravity equation with lagged trade flows as a structural feature rather than an ad hoc add-on. We propose a novel estimation approach for dynamic gravity models that explicitly accounts for persistence. Empirically, we show that ignoring persistence can lead standard gravity estimates to substantially understate the effects of trade policy changes. As an application, we find that the estimated trade impact of regional trade agreements can increase by 30 percent or more once persistence is taken into account.

Keywords: Dynamic gravity; persistence; sluggish price adjustment; sticky prices; RTA; trade costs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-15
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp2171.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Sticky Gravity (2026)
Working Paper: Sticky Gravity (2026)
Working Paper: Sticky Gravity (2026)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2171

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEP Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Performance, LSE
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().