Counting the costs: a quantitative assessment of Brexit’s effect on UK regional economies

Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry, Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia

CEP Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Performance, LSE

Abstract: This paper examines the implications of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) using a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. Unlike previous studies that primarily projected potential impacts of Brexit based on uncertain scenarios, this analysis introduces new estimates of tariffs and nontariff measures (NTMs) specified by the TCA. The findings show that while the TCA will necessitate substantial adjustments for some sectors, Brexit will not fundamentally alter the overall structure of the UK economy. However, the main impacts will manifest as significant hits to real wages and productivity, exacerbating the long-standing economic challenges faced by the UK.

Keywords: Brexit; EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA); non-tariff measures; spatial general equilibrium; UK regions and sectors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05-28
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2187

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