Inflation Expectations in the Czech Interbank Market

Martin Fukač

CERGE-EI Working Papers from The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague

Abstract: Monthly data on the inflation expectations of financial analysts in the Czech Republic exhibit a tendency for permanent bias and ineffectiveness which violates the rational expectations hypothesis assumed in macroeconomic models. This paper asks whether the surveyed data include any monetary-policy relevant information, in other words, whether the surveyed expectations correspond to the true market expectations, and hence should be reflected in macro models of the Czech economy instead of the rational expectations hypothesis. Using a methodology based on a simple Fisher rule, it is found that the difference between the surveyed and market expectations is not statistically significant.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Nominal interest rate; Fisher rule. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E43 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-tra
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