Pay and Unemployment Determinants of Migration Flows in the European Union

Antonio Afonso, José Alves and Krzysztof Beck

No 10131, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We analyze the migration drivers within the European Union countries. For a set of 23 EU countries over the 1995-2019 period, we use Bayesian Model Averaging and quantile regression to assess notably the relevance of unemployment and earnings. We find that the existence of a common border increases the number of net migrants by 172 people per 1000 inhabitants. In addition, 1000 PPP Euro increase in the difference in net annual salaries increases net migration by approximately 50 and 42 people per 1000 inhabitants in a working age of both countries under uniform and binomial-beta model prior, respectively. Moreover, one percentage point increase in the difference in the unemployment rate is associated with an increase in net immigration by approximately 6 and 3 persons by 1000 inhabitants in both countries. These results are also corroborated with the quantile regression results. Hence, human capital inside the EU is moving in search of higher cross-country earnings.

Keywords: migration flows; earnings; unemployment; Bayesian Model Averaging; quantile regression; EU (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 F15 F22 J61 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-lab
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Related works:
Working Paper: Pay and unemployment determinants of migration flows in the European Union (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10131

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