The (Option-) Value of Overstaying

Romuald Méango and François Poinas

No 10536, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying, and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.

Keywords: subjective expectations; intention to overstay; asylum seekers; Germany; Afghanistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C20 D84 F22 J15 J18 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab and nep-mig
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Working Paper: The (Option-)Value of Overstaying (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10536

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