Population Aging, Retirement, and Aggregate Productivity
Klaus Gründler () and
No 10594, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo
Most industrialized countries today are facing historical demographic changes, paring increasing retirement with a declining labor force. We study the consequences of an increasing pensioner-worker ratio in a macroeconomic framework, which suggests a negative effect on total factor productivity. Using newly collected longitudinal data on pensioners, we quantify this effect by exploiting variation in the pre-determined component of retirement. We find that a 10-point increase in the pensioner-worker ratio decreases factor productivity by 5-6%. The effect is stronger when production is labor intensive and automation potential is low. Economic aging also impedes the creation of innovation at the technological frontier.
Keywords: aging; retirement; factor productivity; secular stagnation; demographic transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C26 D24 J11 J14 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eff, nep-gro and nep-lab
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10594
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().