Cybercrime on the Ethereum Blockchain

Lars Hornuf, Paul P. Momtaz, Rachel J. Nam and Ye Yuan

No 10598, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We examine how cybercrime impacts victims’ risk-taking and returns. Our difference-in-differences analysis of a sample of victims and matched non-victims is in line with prospect theory and suggests that victims increase their long-term total risk-taking after losing part of their wealth. Victims also earn lower risk-adjusted returns in the post-cybercrime period. Victims’ long-term total risk-taking increases because they increase diversifiable risk in the long term. The increased diversifiable risk correlates with victims’ withdrawal from altcoins after cybercrime. At the same time, the reduction in risk-adjusted returns correlates with increased trading activity and churn, due plausibly to managing cybercrime exposure. In the cross-section of Ethereum addresses, we show that the most affluent victims take a systematic approach to restore their pre-cybercrime wealth level, while the least affluent victims turn into gamblers. Finally, a parsimonious forensic model explains a good part of the addresses’ probability of being involved in cybercrime, on both the victim and the cybercriminal side.

Keywords: Ethereum blockchain; market manipulation; financial fraud; token investment scam; cybercrime; cryptocurrency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 G24 G30 L26 M13 O16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pay
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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