Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility

Rannveig Kaldager Hart, Janna Bergsvik, Agnes Fauske and Wookun Kim

No 10690, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This chapter reviews the literature on the causal effects of policies on fertility. It focuses on evidence from experiments and quasi-experiments in low fertility contexts, including studies from Europe, Northern America, Oceania and Asia. Making no a priori restrictions on policy type, the review encompasses evaluations of parental leave, childcare, health insurance, and financial incentives such as child transfers. Childcare expansions increase completed fertility. Financial incentives had positive effects on fertility across contexts, both in the short and long run. Expansions of parental leave rights in Central Europe, and introduction of parental leave in the U.S., also had positive effects. Distributional effects of these policies are very different, with parental leave compensation benefiting high-earning couples, while expansions of child care programs have potential to reduce social inequalities.

Keywords: fertility; parental leave; cash transfers; childcare; healthcare; public policy; causal effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H53 I18 J13 J18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-lab
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