Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects

Jésus Fernández-Villaverde, Tomohide Mineyama, Dongho Song and Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde

No 11192, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We then employ structural vector autoregressions and local projections to assess the causal effects of changes in fragmentation. Our analysis demonstrates that increased fragmentation negatively impacts the global economy, with emerging economies suffering more than advanced ones. Notably, we document a key asymmetry: fragmentation has an immediate negative effect, while the benefits of reduced fragmentation unfold gradually. A sectoral analysis within OECD economies reveals that industries closely linked to global markets —such as manufacturing, construction, finance, and wholesale and retail trade— are adversely affected. Finally, we examine the interaction between fragmentation and the economic dynamics of regional economic blocs, highlighting significant differences in the impacts across various geopolitical blocs.

Keywords: dynamic factor model; causality; geopolitical fragmentation; fragmentation index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C33 E00 F01 F20 F40 F60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-opm and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects (2024)
Working Paper: Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effect (2024)
Working Paper: Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects (2024)
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