Temporary Internal Displacement and Receiving Communities’ Voting Behavior

Salvatore Carrozzo

No 11737, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of a temporary forced internal migration on the voting behavior in the receiving municipalities. During World War I, around 500,00 thousand displaced nationals were resettled from the Italian government within the country and stayed in the receiving place for less than two years. Leveraging on the quasi-random relocation policy and the short stay of displaced individuals, I evaluate whether hosting a large share of forced migrants affects voting behavior in the subsequent elections. Findings indicate that an increase in the share of hosted displaced individuals corresponds to a decrease in the vote share for the Italian Popular Party (PPI), the Catholic party. This aligns with historical evidence highlighting the significant role of Catholic associations in assisting displaced people at arrival. The negative impact on the Catholic party persisted for two consecutive elections, 1919 and 1921, before dissipating in 1924. Anti-competitive behavior for public services is likely to explain the voting behavior.

Keywords: displaced people; political outcomes; public spending; resettlement policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H53 I38 N34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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