Norway’s Net-Zero Emissions Target for 2030: Too Ambitious to Be True?

Brita Bye, Taran Fæhn, Lars Gulbrandsen, Kevin R. Kaushal, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Gunnhild Søgaard, Asbjørn Torvanger, Jørgen Wettestad, Knut Øistad and Taran Faehn

No 11834, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Norway has positioned itself as a climate policy forerunner by aiming to reach net-zero emissions already by 2030. However, the net-zero ambition is not well-defined, not legally binding, nor substantiated by action plans. In a first, interdisciplinary, analysis we scrutinise the net-zero concept and discuss unilateral options. Second, we provide an economic analysis with a global computable model, SNOW, of the costs and macroeconomic impacts of various policy scenarios. It explores how the net-zero ambition interacts with other 2030 goals and quantifies the impacts of emphasising domestic abatement and carbon removal measures vs. paying for emission mitigation abroad. Finally, the 2030 results are revisited to assess how well they align with Norwegian and global climate targets for 2050.The main findings are that pursuing the net-zero ambition, on top of other binding 2030 goals Norway is already committed to, will increase costs by 25-100% depending on the use of domestic measures. On the margin, domestic measures are found to have only small, uncertain, and costly mitigation potential, thus, buying international carbon credits will be inevitable. Besides being significantly cheaper, carbon trading can have the potential benefits of developing the credit markets and the individual projects’ qualities. Even if domestic measures can play but a modest part in the net-zero strategy towards 2030, we identify several steps governments unilaterally can take today to expand abatement opportunities towards mid-century. We also find measures that seem cost-effective in pursuing 2030 goals but look less attractive against a global 2050 backdrop.

Keywords: net-zero emissions; climate change mitigation; abatement policies; nationally determined contributions; carbon credits; emissions trading system; effort-sharing regulation; LULUCF. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H20 H30 Q40 Q50 R40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11834.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11834

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().