Peer Effects in Macroeconomic Expectations

Lena Dräger, Klaus Gründler and Niklas Potrafke

No 11892, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Social interactions affect individual behavior in a variety of ways, but their effects on expectation formation are less well understood. We design a large-scale global survey experiment among renowned experts working in 135 countries to study whether peer effects impact expectations about the macroeconomy. The global setting allows us to exploit rich cross-national variation in macroeconomic fundamentals. Our experiment uncovers sizable effects of peers and shows that peer information also shifts monetary policy recommendations of experts. The results have important implications for the design of policies and models of information acquisition.

Keywords: inflation expectations; belief formation; peer effects; survey experiment; economic experts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E31 E71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Working Paper: Peer Effects in Macroeconomic Expectations (2025)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11892

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