Hegemonic Globalization

Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer and Christoph Trebesch

No 11951, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any two countries increases with the degree of alignment in these policies. Hegemons promote policy alignment and thereby facilitate deeper trade integration. A unipolar world, dominated by a single hegemon, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is particularly costly for the declining hegemon and its closest allies. To test the theory, we use nternational treaties as a proxy for alignment and compile a novel “Global Treaties Database,” covering 77,000 international agreements signed between 1800 and 2020. Consistent with the theory, we find that hegemons account for a disproportionate share of global treaty activity and that treaty-signing is a leading indicator of increasing bilateral trade.

Keywords: hegemon; globalization; trade integration; international coercion; international treaties; cooperation; multipolar world (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F02 F15 F50 F51 F55 F60 P45 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Working Paper: Hegemonic Globalization (2025)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11951

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