Corporate Survival in Emerging European Markets: Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War

Evžen Kočenda and Ichiro Iwasaki

No 12005, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We investigate the determinants of firm survival in 17 emerging European markets during the dual crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Using a large dataset of over 59,000 firms and employing a Cox proportional hazards model, the study evaluates how firm-specific characteristics, regional socio-economic conditions, and institutional quality shaped survival outcomes between 2020 and 2023. The analysis reveals that firm exit was more prevalent in EU member states, likely due to stricter crisis-related restrictions. Socio-economic variables such as population density, tourism dependence, and health expenditures played a critical role, while institutional quality, contrary to expectations, was associated with higher exit rates during crises. The banking sector played a role in influencing firm resilience through credit provision and financial support mechanisms. The Russo-Ukrainian war further amplified survival risks, especially for firms located in countries geographically or economically exposed to the conflict. The findings offer valuable insights for designing targeted policy interventions aimed at enhancing business resilience in vulnerable and institutionally diverse environments.

Keywords: firm survival; banking sector; covid pandemic; Russo-Ukrainian war; Central and Eastern Europe; emerging markets; survival and exit determinants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 D02 D22 G33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-sbm
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12005.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12005

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().