Moving Online Under de Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-commerce

Te Du, Chao Fang, Shuzhong Ma, Lixin Tang and Zhihong Yu

No 12033, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The rapid growth of international retail e-commerce has drawn scrutiny to the US de minimis rule, which exempts low-value imports from tariffs. This paper analyzes how the rule shapes the small-value e-commerce trade. We examine whether tariff increases during the 2018–2019 US–China trade war led consumers to substitute toward tariff-exempt e-commerce imports from China. Using proprietary parcel-level data from a major logistics firm, we find that a 10-percentage-point increase in tariffs raised monthly parcel volume by 3% in panel regressions and by 7% in long-difference specifications. These estimates imply that trade-war tariffs increased e-commerce imports by 5.3%–13.5%—substantial, yet modest compared to the spectacular overall ecommerce growth over 2017-2019. The response is stronger in more densely populated ZIP Codes but does not vary by income or race.

Keywords: trade war; de minimis rule; international e-commerce (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 L81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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