Climate Shift Uncertainty and Economic Damages

Romain Fillon, Manuel Linsenmeier and Gernot Wagner

No 12289, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Focusing on global annual averages of climatic variables can bias aggregate and distributional estimates of the economic impacts of climate change. We here empirically identify dose-response functions of GDP growth rates to daily mean temperature levels and combine them with regional intra-annual climate projections of daily mean temperatures. We then disentangle, for various shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), how much of the missing impacts are due to heterogeneous warming patterns over space. Global damages in 2050 are 25% (21-28% across SSPs) higher when accounting for the shift in the shape of the entire intra-annual distribution of daily mean temperatures at the regional scale.

Keywords: damage functions; climate risk; climate shift; downscaling; spatial disaggregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D62 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12289

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